Replication Lab · Study 3
Kaufman, Kraft & Sen (2019): Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees
Boosted decision trees that add what the Justices did at oral argument: whom they questioned, how much, and whom they cut off. We rebuilt the model from the authors' replication archive, checked it on their own data, recomputed their oral-argument variables from the Court's transcripts, and ran it on OT2010–OT2025.
Verdict: reproduced on the authors' data; on later cases the edge mostly disappears.
On the authors' own data our rebuild scores 74.5% (paper: 74.0%) and makes the same call as their published predictions on 93.4% of cases.
Built from the Court's own transcripts, the paper's design scores 65.4% on OT2010–OT2019 against 63.9% for the petitioner always winning (+1.5 points).
Forecasting OT2022–OT2025 one term at a time, it gets 68.6% of 229 cases against 67.2% (+1.4 points, within chance), and in OT2025 it does worse than the baseline.
Paper, OT2005–2014
74.0%
cross-validated; petitioner always wins 68.0%
Rebuild on the authors’ data
74.5%
same call as their predictions on 93.4%
Paper’s design, OT2010–2019
65.4%
our transcripts; petitioner always wins 63.9%
Forecasts, OT2022–2025
68.6%
157 of 229; petitioner always wins 67.2%
The study
Question. Does what happens at oral argument (which side the Justices question, how much they talk to each side, whom they interrupt) improve forecasts built from a case's characteristics, and is boosting a good tool for it?
Design. A cross-validated test on cases argued OT2005–OT2014: the model is fit on nine-tenths of the cases and scored on the remaining tenth, ten times over, and compared with "the petitioner always wins" and with earlier models refit on the same cases.
Data
- 704 argued cases with a clear winner, OT2005–OT2014 (697 scored).
- Eight case variables from the Supreme Court Database: origin court (by circuit), whether a federal or a state agency acted, the lower court's ideological direction and disposition, issue area, cert reason and jurisdiction.
- 47 oral-argument variables from the Oyez transcripts, for the five Justices who sat and spoke throughout (Breyer, Ginsburg, Kennedy, Roberts, Scalia): for each, the share of turns spent on each side, how often those turns are questions, which side drew more of their questions, turns and words, and how often they cut a lawyer off mid-sentence; plus which side had more lawyers arguing (usually because the Solicitor General joined it) and the net number of interruptions.
Method
- AdaBoost: decision trees are fit one after another, each giving more weight to the cases the earlier ones got wrong, and their votes are combined.
- Each step is a forest of shallow (three-level) extremely randomized trees.
- Scored by tenfold cross-validation, with the cases kept in docket order.
What they found
| Model | Notes | |
|---|---|---|
| Case variables + oral argument | 74.04% | Against 67.98% for the petitioner always winning (the authors' figure for all cases since 2000): about seven more correct calls a term. |
| Oral argument only | 72.5% | Most of the gain comes from the argument. |
| Case variables only | 60.6% | Below the base rate: no model the authors tried beat it with case variables alone. |
| By kind of case | 6–3 decisions +13 points; federalism +16; government a party +9 | Weaker gains in criminal procedure, civil rights and First Amendment cases. |
The takeaway. How the Justices behave at argument says more about the outcome than the case's paperwork does; on its own, the paperwork did worse than simply picking the petitioner.
- Aaron Russell Kaufman, Peter Kraft & Maya Sen, Improving Supreme Court Forecasting Using Boosted Decision Trees, Political Analysis 27(3): 381–387 (2019). DOI →
- Replication archive (code, feature table and per-case predictions): Harvard Dataverse, doi:10.7910/DVN/JJCXTH. Dataverse →
- Oral-argument counts build on the CourtCast project, github.com/nasrallah/CourtCast. GitHub →
What the authors' code shows
- The baseline is from a different sample. The paper's 67.98% is the petitioner's win rate in all cases since 2000. In the 697 cases the model was actually scored on, the petitioner won 65.8%, and the authors' published predictions get 73.9%: an edge of +8.0 points on those cases, larger than the 6 points reported.
- The test is not a forecast. Cross-validation in docket order means that most test cases are predicted by a model trained partly on later terms. That measures fit, not the ability to call next term's cases in advance; we add forward forecasts below.
- Only five Justices are in the model. The oral-argument variables cover Breyer, Ginsburg, Kennedy, Roberts and Scalia; what Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor and Kagan did at argument is not used.
- Nothing was tuned. The grid search is given no parameters to search, so the settings in the code are the model: 10,000 boosting rounds of 10,000-tree forests.
- Codes are used as numbers. The database inputs enter as raw codes (issue area 1 to 14, for example), and code 3 of the lower-court disposition is recoded to 1.5, the same recode the code applies to the lower court's direction.
How we rebuilt it
| Paper | Our rebuild | |
|---|---|---|
| Transcripts | Oyez transcripts, OT2005–OT2014, processed by CourtCast | The Court’s official transcripts, OT2010–OT2025 (1,050 arguments), parsed by our own parser, with sides read from each transcript’s list of appearances |
| Justices | Breyer, Ginsburg, Kennedy, Roberts, Scalia: the Justices who sat and spoke throughout the authors’ ten terms | The same rule for each window. OT2010–OT2019: Roberts, Ginsburg, Breyer, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan. Forecasts trained from OT2010: Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, the five who sat throughout OT2010–OT2025 (Justice Thomas rarely spoke before 2020) |
| Model size | 10,000 boosting rounds of 10,000-tree forests | 60 rounds of 200-tree forests; on the authors’ own data this already reproduces their result (see the check) |
| Boosting variant | SAMME.R (scikit-learn’s default in 2018) | The same, written out, since current scikit-learn only offers SAMME |
| Database inputs | SCDB 2015 release | SCDB 2025 Release 01. For OT2025, coded from the opinions: the origin court is taken to be the court below, and agency involvement is set to none |
| Scoring | Tenfold cross-validation in docket order | The same on OT2010–OT2019, plus forecasts of OT2022–OT2025 trained only on earlier terms |
Check: our model on the authors' own data
The archive includes the authors' finished feature table. We ran our implementation on it, scored it the same way (tenfold, docket order), and matched its calls against their published predictions.
| Inputs | Paper | Our rebuild |
|---|---|---|
| Case variables + oral argument | 74.04% | 74.5% |
| Oral argument only | 72.5% | 71.0% |
| Case variables only | 60.6% | 62.1% |
| Petitioner always wins (same 697 cases) | 65.8% | 65.8% |
Our rebuild makes the same call as the authors' published predictions on 93.4% of the 697 cases.
The paper's design on a later decade (OT2010–OT2019)
The same variables recomputed from the Court's transcripts for 657 cases, scored by tenfold cross-validation in docket order, as in the paper, with the six Justices who sat and spoke throughout the decade.
| Inputs | Accuracy | Petitioner always wins |
|---|---|---|
| Case variables + oral argument | 65.4% | 63.9% |
| Oral argument only | 65.6% | 63.9% |
| Case variables only | 58.1% | 63.9% |
With the five Justices used for forecasting instead (Thomas in place of Ginsburg and Breyer), the same test scores 62.9% (−1.0 points).
The signal underneath: does the side questioned less win?
The best-known regularity in oral argument is that the side the Justices question more tends to lose. In the authors' cases (OT2005–OT2014) the side that drew fewer turns won 62.8% of the time. In ours it won 57.6% in OT2010–OT2019 (629 cases), and 47.6% since OT2020 (328 cases): no better than a coin flip. The change coincides with the Court adding, from OT2020, a round in which each Justice questions each lawyer in turn by seniority, which evens out how many turns each side gets.
Side with fewer Justice turns winsCoin flip
All Justices' turns while each side argued (rebuttal counts for the petitioner); ties and one-sided transcripts left out. Each point is one term.
Forecasting OT2022–OT2025
Each term predicted by a model trained only on earlier terms (from OT2010), so nothing from the term itself is seen.
| Term | Training cases | Both | Oral only | Case only | Petitioner always wins | Points | Picked petitioner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT2022 | 771 | 70.9% 39/55 | 67.3% | 54.5% | 61.8% | +9.1 | 44 of 55 |
| OT2023 | 826 | 71.9% 41/57 | 73.7% | 61.4% | 71.9% | +0.0 | 47 of 57 |
| OT2024 | 883 | 70.0% 42/60 | 73.3% | 71.7% | 68.3% | +1.7 | 43 of 60 |
| OT2025 | 943 | 61.4% 35/57 | 64.9% | 66.7% | 66.7% | −5.3 | 44 of 57 |
| All four | 68.6% 157/229 | 69.9% | 63.8% | 67.2% | +1.4 |
95% interval for the pooled accuracy: 62.4%–74.2%.
Case by case
Each case shows how the five Justices' turns split between the sides, the model's pick (and the pick using the argument alone), and the winner.
OT2025 · 35 of 57 right (61.4%) · picked the petitioner in 44 · trained on 943 cases from OT2010–OT2024
The last column shows the forecast we published before the decision, where we made one.
| Case and what the argument showed | Model | Winner | Right? | Our forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landor v. Louisiana Department of Corrections and Public Safety, et al. Five Justices' turns: 97 to the petitioner, 45 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ | Petitioner ✗ |
| M & K Employee Solutions, LLC, et al. v. Trustees of the Iam National Pension Fund Five Justices' turns: 31 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corporation, et al. Five Justices' turns: 34 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | — |
| Wolford, et al. v. Lopez, Attorney General of Hawaii Five Justices' turns: 94 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Isabel Rico v. United States Five Justices' turns: 17 to the petitioner, 25 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Hunter v. United States Five Justices' turns: 75 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Monsanto Company v. Durnell Five Justices' turns: 34 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Louisiana v. Callais, et al. Five Justices' turns: 79 to the petitioner, 87 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | Respondent ✓ |
| United States v. Hemani Five Justices' turns: 44 to the petitioner, 84 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC, et al. Five Justices' turns: 35 to the petitioner, 72 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Watson, Secretary of State of Mississippi v. Republican National Committee, et al. Five Justices' turns: 63 to the petitioner, 57 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | Respondent ✗ |
| Learning Resources, Inc., et al. v. Trump, President of the United States, et al. Five Justices' turns: 79 to the petitioner, 89 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment, et al. Five Justices' turns: 61 to the petitioner, 26 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| FS Credit Opportunities Corp., et al. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, LTD., et al. Five Justices' turns: 42 to the petitioner, 16 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| United States Postal Service et al. v. Konan Five Justices' turns: 33 to the petitioner, 23 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Little, Governor of Idaho, et al. v. Hecox, et al. Five Justices' turns: 90 to the petitioner, 52 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| West Virginia, et al. v. B. P. J. Five Justices' turns: 56 to the petitioner, 26 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Harold Berk v. Wilson Choy, et al. Five Justices' turns: 31 to the petitioner, 31 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | — |
| Holsey Ellingburg, JR. v. United States Five Justices' turns: 35 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Chiles v. Salazar, et al. Five Justices' turns: 55 to the petitioner, 44 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Michael S. Bowe v. United States Five Justices' turns: 57 to the petitioner, 74 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Fernandez v. United States Five Justices' turns: 50 to the petitioner, 30 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Villarreal v. Texas Five Justices' turns: 80 to the petitioner, 58 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ | — |
| Bost et al. v. Illinois State Board of Elections et al. Five Justices' turns: 64 to the petitioner, 43 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Dwayne Barrett v. United States Five Justices' turns: 48 to the petitioner, 5 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| National Republican Senatorial Committee, et al. v. Federal Election Commission, et al. Five Justices' turns: 81 to the petitioner, 52 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| William Trevor Case v. Montana Five Justices' turns: 60 to the petitioner, 43 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation v. Corporacion Cimex, S.A. (Cuba), et al. Five Justices' turns: 78 to the petitioner, 46 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Hain Celestial Group, Inc., et al. v. Palmquist, Individually and As Next Friend of E. P., a Minor, et al. Five Justices' turns: 30 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ | — |
| Terry Pitchford, Petitioner v. Burl Cain, Commissioner, Mississippi Department of Corrections Five Justices' turns: 78 to the petitioner, 71 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | — |
| Geo Group, Inc. v. Menocal et al. Five Justices' turns: 17 to the petitioner, 16 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Urias-Orellana v. Bondi, Attorney General Five Justices' turns: 37 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| First Choice Women's Resource Centers, Inc. v. Davenport, Attorney General of New Jersey Five Justices' turns: 40 to the petitioner, 50 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Enbridge Energy, LP, et al. v. Nessel, Attorney General of Michigan Five Justices' turns: 49 to the petitioner, 29 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✗ | Respondent ✓ |
| Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton, Chapter 7 Trustee for Vista-Pro Automotive, LLC Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 21 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ | — |
| Chevron U.S.A. Inc., et al. v. Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, et al. Five Justices' turns: 40 to the petitioner, 12 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Daniel Rutherford v. United States (Together With Johnnie Markel Carter v. United States, No. 24-860) Five Justices' turns: 52 to the petitioner, 19 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Cisco Systems, Inc., et al. v. Doe I, et al. Five Justices' turns: 83 to the petitioner, 28 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| John Q. Hamm, Commissioner, Alabama Department of Corrections v. Joseph Clifton Smith Five Justices' turns: 113 to the petitioner, 65 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. v. Amarin Pharma, Inc. Five Justices' turns: 45 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Winston T. Hencely v. Fluor Corporation, et al. Five Justices' turns: 55 to the petitioner, 67 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Flowers Foods, Inc., et al. v. Brock Five Justices' turns: 44 to the petitioner, 47 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| Havana Docks Corporation v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, LTD., et al. Five Justices' turns: 88 to the petitioner, 22 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Olivier v. City of Brandon, Mississippi, et al. Five Justices' turns: 75 to the petitioner, 21 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | — |
| Mullin, et al. v. Doe, et al. Five Justices' turns: 61 to the petitioner, 79 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Chatrie v. United States Five Justices' turns: 78 to the petitioner, 77 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| T. M. v. University of Maryland Medical System Corporation Five Justices' turns: 36 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
| Trump, President of the United States v. Slaughter, et al. Five Justices' turns: 79 to the petitioner, 75 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Trump, President of the United States, et al. v. Barbara, et al. Five Justices' turns: 39 to the petitioner, 41 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ | Respondent ✓ |
| Federal Communications Commission, et al. v. AT&T Inc., et al. Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 15 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Respondent ✗ |
| Blanche, Acting Attorney General v. Lau Five Justices' turns: 83 to the petitioner, 36 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Sripetch v. Securities and Exchange Commission Five Justices' turns: 61 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Noem, Secretary of Homeland Security, et al. v. Al Otro Lado, et al. Five Justices' turns: 54 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Ahmad Abouammo v. United States Five Justices' turns: 5 to the petitioner, 60 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | — |
| Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction, Inc. Five Justices' turns: 53 to the petitioner, 9 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ | Petitioner ✓ |
| Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties, et al. Five Justices' turns: 47 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ | — |
| Pung, Personal Representative v. Isabella County, Michigan, et al. Five Justices' turns: 71 to the petitioner, 24 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ | Petitioner ✗ |
OT2024 · 42 of 60 right (70.0%) · picked the petitioner in 43 · trained on 883 cases from OT2010–OT2023
| Case and what the argument showed | Model | Winner | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glossip v. Oklahoma Five Justices' turns: 128 to the petitioner, 44 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Hewitt v. United States Five Justices' turns: 99 to the petitioner, 5 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Cunningham v. Cornell University Five Justices' turns: 70 to the petitioner, 26 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| FDA v. Wages and White Lion Investments, LLC Five Justices' turns: 47 to the petitioner, 27 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services Five Justices' turns: 32 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Oklahoma v. Environmental Protection Agency Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 7 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Thompson v. United States Five Justices' turns: 58 to the petitioner, 59 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Free Speech Coalition v. Paxton Five Justices' turns: 128 to the petitioner, 50 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Wisconsin Bell v. U.S., ex rel. Todd Heath Five Justices' turns: 36 to the petitioner, 58 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Smith & Wesson Brands v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos Five Justices' turns: 50 to the petitioner, 45 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Food and Drug Administration v. R.J. Reynolds Vapor Co. Five Justices' turns: 51 to the petitioner, 31 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Cc/Devas (Mauritius) Limited v. Antrix Corp. LTD. Five Justices' turns: 28 to the petitioner, 21 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Mclaughlin Chiropractic Associates v. Mckesson Corporation Five Justices' turns: 32 to the petitioner, 37 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Environmental Protection Agency v. Calumet Shreveport Refining, LLC Five Justices' turns: 71 to the petitioner, 36 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Barnes v. Felix Five Justices' turns: 54 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Blom Bank Sal v. Honickman Five Justices' turns: 21 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Riley v. Bondi Five Justices' turns: 37 to the petitioner, 41 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Medina v. Planned Parenthood South Atlantic Five Justices' turns: 61 to the petitioner, 26 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Nuclear Regulatory Commission v. Texas Five Justices' turns: 69 to the petitioner, 49 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Perttu v. Richards Five Justices' turns: 89 to the petitioner, 29 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Rivers v. Guerrero Five Justices' turns: 33 to the petitioner, 7 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Williams v. Reed Five Justices' turns: 58 to the petitioner, 37 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| E.M.D. Sales v. Carrera Five Justices' turns: 35 to the petitioner, 19 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Medical Marijuana, Inc. v. Horn Five Justices' turns: 57 to the petitioner, 37 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| United States v. Skrmetti Five Justices' turns: 56 to the petitioner, 85 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Bouarfa v. Mayorkas Five Justices' turns: 16 to the petitioner, 18 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Lackey v. Stinnie Five Justices' turns: 59 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Royal Canin U.S.A., Inc. v. Wullschleger Five Justices' turns: 53 to the petitioner, 18 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Bufkin v. Collins Five Justices' turns: 40 to the petitioner, 30 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Advocate Christ Medical Center v. Kennedy Five Justices' turns: 24 to the petitioner, 22 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Esteras v. United States Five Justices' turns: 43 to the petitioner, 33 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency Five Justices' turns: 85 to the petitioner, 64 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Gutierrez v. Saenz Five Justices' turns: 83 to the petitioner, 51 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| United States v. Miller Five Justices' turns: 17 to the petitioner, 22 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Delligatti v. United States Five Justices' turns: 33 to the petitioner, 25 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Bondi v. Vanderstok Five Justices' turns: 46 to the petitioner, 43 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Feliciano v. Department of Transportation Five Justices' turns: 36 to the petitioner, 44 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Republic of Hungary v. Simon Five Justices' turns: 49 to the petitioner, 30 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Dewberry Group v. Dewberry Engineers Five Justices' turns: 33 to the petitioner, 15 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Kousisis v. United States Five Justices' turns: 5 to the petitioner, 97 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Velazquez v. Bondi Five Justices' turns: 47 to the petitioner, 49 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Nvidia Corp. v. E. Ohman J:or Fonder Ab Five Justices' turns: 55 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Waetzig v. Halliburton Energy Services Five Justices' turns: 34 to the petitioner, 11 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Seven County Infastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado Five Justices' turns: 66 to the petitioner, 30 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Facebook v. Amalgamated Bank Five Justices' turns: 44 to the petitioner, 79 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Stanley v. City of Sanford, Florida Five Justices' turns: 77 to the petitioner, 40 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin Labor & Industry Review Commission Five Justices' turns: 70 to the petitioner, 51 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Fuld v. Palestine Liberation Organization Five Justices' turns: 106 to the petitioner, 18 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| A.J.T. v. Osseo Area Schools, Independent School District No. 279 Five Justices' turns: 39 to the petitioner, 32 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Parrish v. United States Five Justices' turns: 33 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Mahmoud v. Taylor Five Justices' turns: 116 to the petitioner, 59 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings v. Davis Five Justices' turns: 95 to the petitioner, 45 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Kennedy v. Braidwood Management Five Justices' turns: 57 to the petitioner, 68 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Soto v. United States Five Justices' turns: 48 to the petitioner, 29 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Federal Communications Commission v. Consumers' Research Five Justices' turns: 91 to the petitioner, 68 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Martin v. United States Five Justices' turns: 21 to the petitioner, 31 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Oklahoma Statewide Charter School Board v. Drummond Five Justices' turns: 101 to the petitioner, 61 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Commissioner of Internal Revenue v. Zuch Five Justices' turns: 26 to the petitioner, 22 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Tiktok, Inc. v. Garland Five Justices' turns: 144 to the petitioner, 55 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Diamond Alternative Energy LLC v. Environmental Protection Agency Five Justices' turns: 26 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
OT2023 · 41 of 57 right (71.9%) · picked the petitioner in 47 · trained on 826 cases from OT2010–OT2022
| Case and what the argument showed | Model | Winner | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corner Post v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Five Justices' turns: 39 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Gonzalez v. Trevino Five Justices' turns: 31 to the petitioner, 40 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Sheetz v. County of El Dorado, California Five Justices' turns: 48 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Warner Chappell Music v. Neal Five Justices' turns: 23 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Truck Insurance Exchange v. Kaiser Gypsum Company Five Justices' turns: 47 to the petitioner, 45 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Macquarie Infrastructure Corp. v. Moab Partners, L.P. Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Federal Bureau of Investigation v. Fikre Five Justices' turns: 48 to the petitioner, 31 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Smith v. Spizzirri Five Justices' turns: 17 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Office of the U.S. Trustee v. John Q. Hammons Fall 2006, LLC Five Justices' turns: 16 to the petitioner, 19 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Muldrow v. City of ST. Louis, Missouri Five Justices' turns: 94 to the petitioner, 26 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Moody v. Netchoice, LLC Five Justices' turns: 47 to the petitioner, 103 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| O'connor-Ratcliff v. Garnier Five Justices' turns: 93 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Pulsifer v. United States Five Justices' turns: 51 to the petitioner, 43 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Acheson Hotels, LLC v. Laufer Five Justices' turns: 59 to the petitioner, 32 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Consumer Financial Protection Bureau v. Community Financial Services Association of America, Limited Five Justices' turns: 50 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo Five Justices' turns: 34 to the petitioner, 22 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Great Lakes Insurance Se v. Raiders Retreat Realty Co., LLC Five Justices' turns: 34 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Cantero v. Bank of America Five Justices' turns: 85 to the petitioner, 37 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Culley v. Marshall Five Justices' turns: 69 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Lindke v. Freed Five Justices' turns: 24 to the petitioner, 46 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Brown v. United States Five Justices' turns: 55 to the petitioner, 29 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Murray v. Ubs Securities, LLC Five Justices' turns: 70 to the petitioner, 32 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Wilkinson v. Garland Five Justices' turns: 36 to the petitioner, 47 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Campos-Chaves v. Garland Five Justices' turns: 103 to the petitioner, 5 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Vidal v. Elster Five Justices' turns: 31 to the petitioner, 31 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Mcelrath v. Georgia Five Justices' turns: 38 to the petitioner, 35 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Mcintosh v. United States Five Justices' turns: 19 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Moore v. United States Five Justices' turns: 54 to the petitioner, 64 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Alexander v. South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP Five Justices' turns: 66 to the petitioner, 85 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| National Rifle Association of America v. Vullo Five Justices' turns: 51 to the petitioner, 22 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Department of Agriculture Rural Development Rural Housing Service v. Kirtz Five Justices' turns: 65 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy Five Justices' turns: 70 to the petitioner, 81 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Rudisill v. Mcdonough Five Justices' turns: 35 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Smith v. Arizona Five Justices' turns: 49 to the petitioner, 34 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Devillier v. Texas Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 94 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| United States v. Rahimi Five Justices' turns: 45 to the petitioner, 32 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Garland v. Cargill Five Justices' turns: 43 to the petitioner, 91 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Thornell v. Jones Five Justices' turns: 70 to the petitioner, 23 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Snyder v. United States Five Justices' turns: 48 to the petitioner, 106 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Harrington v. Purdue Pharma L.P. Five Justices' turns: 63 to the petitioner, 67 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Diaz v. United States Five Justices' turns: 67 to the petitioner, 47 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Connelly v. United States Five Justices' turns: 21 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson Five Justices' turns: 129 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Harrow v. Department of Defense Five Justices' turns: 18 to the petitioner, 18 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine Five Justices' turns: 68 to the petitioner, 46 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Becerra v. San Carlos Apache Tribe Five Justices' turns: 39 to the petitioner, 65 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Coinbase v. Suski Five Justices' turns: 24 to the petitioner, 10 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Department of State v. Muã±oz Five Justices' turns: 63 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Starbucks Corp. v. Mckinney Five Justices' turns: 30 to the petitioner, 36 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Erlinger v. United States Five Justices' turns: 66 to the petitioner, 14 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Murthy v. Missouri Five Justices' turns: 62 to the petitioner, 49 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Chiaverini v. City of Napoleon, Ohio Five Justices' turns: 57 to the petitioner, 11 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Bissonnette v. Lepage Bakeries Park ST., LLC Five Justices' turns: 14 to the petitioner, 28 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Fischer v. United States Five Justices' turns: 44 to the petitioner, 86 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Trump v. Anderson Five Justices' turns: 129 to the petitioner, 79 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Moyle v. United States Five Justices' turns: 75 to the petitioner, 71 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Trump v. United States Five Justices' turns: 66 to the petitioner, 106 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
OT2022 · 39 of 55 right (70.9%) · picked the petitioner in 44 · trained on 771 cases from OT2010–OT2021
| Case and what the argument showed | Model | Winner | Right? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College Five Justices' turns: 45 to the petitioner, 84 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Abitron Austria GMBH v. Hetronic Int'l Five Justices' turns: 37 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| U.S., ex rel. Polansky v. Executive Health Resources Five Justices' turns: 35 to the petitioner, 48 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Allen v. Milligan Five Justices' turns: 74 to the petitioner, 66 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Percoco v. United States Five Justices' turns: 31 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Wilkins v. United States Five Justices' turns: 32 to the petitioner, 35 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Mallory v. Norfolk Southern Railway Co. Five Justices' turns: 57 to the petitioner, 82 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Ciminelli v. United States Five Justices' turns: 30 to the petitioner, 32 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Bittner v. United States Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 23 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Moac Mall Holdings LLC v. Transform Holdco LLC Five Justices' turns: 6 to the petitioner, 57 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Moore v. Harper Five Justices' turns: 67 to the petitioner, 169 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| United States ex rel. Schutte v. Supervalu Inc. Five Justices' turns: 63 to the petitioner, 26 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Gonzalez v. Google LLC Five Justices' turns: 143 to the petitioner, 25 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| in re GRAND JURY Five Justices' turns: 79 to the petitioner, 5 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Santos-Zacaria v. Garland Five Justices' turns: 32 to the petitioner, 18 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Glacier Northwest v. Int'l Brotherhood of Teamsters Five Justices' turns: 65 to the petitioner, 28 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S. v. United States Five Justices' turns: 41 to the petitioner, 59 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Ohio Adjutant Generalâs Department v. Federal Labor Relations Authority Five Justices' turns: 60 to the petitioner, 58 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Arizona v. Navajo Nation Five Justices' turns: 60 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Twitter v. Taamneh Five Justices' turns: 138 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Smith v. United States Five Justices' turns: 4 to the petitioner, 35 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Polselli v. Internal Revenue Service Five Justices' turns: 11 to the petitioner, 38 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Haaland v. Brackeen Five Justices' turns: 49 to the petitioner, 177 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Arellano v. Mcdonough Five Justices' turns: 8 to the petitioner, 24 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Reed v. Goertz Five Justices' turns: 5 to the petitioner, 24 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency Five Justices' turns: 68 to the petitioner, 68 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| National Pork Producers Council v. Ross Five Justices' turns: 126 to the petitioner, 51 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis Five Justices' turns: 89 to the petitioner, 103 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Amgen Inc. v. Sanofi Five Justices' turns: 59 to the petitioner, 37 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Health and Hospital Corporation of Marion County, Indiana v. Talevski Five Justices' turns: 67 to the petitioner, 20 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Cruz v. Arizona Five Justices' turns: 22 to the petitioner, 44 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Jones v. Hendrix Five Justices' turns: 22 to the petitioner, 55 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Axon Enterprise v. Federal Trade Commission Five Justices' turns: 29 to the petitioner, 43 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts v. Goldsmith Five Justices' turns: 70 to the petitioner, 52 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Perez v. Sturgis Public Schools Five Justices' turns: 67 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Bartenwerfer v. Buckley Five Justices' turns: 35 to the petitioner, 50 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Helix Energy Solutions Group v. Hewitt Five Justices' turns: 55 to the petitioner, 47 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Dubin v. United States Five Justices' turns: 74 to the petitioner, 33 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Coinbase, Inc. v. Bielski Five Justices' turns: 45 to the petitioner, 45 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| Counterman v. Colorado Five Justices' turns: 58 to the petitioner, 64 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Jack Daniels Properties v. Vip Products LLC Five Justices' turns: 83 to the petitioner, 62 to the respondent · more lawyers for the petitioner |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Tyler v. Hennepin County, Minnesota Five Justices' turns: 53 to the petitioner, 50 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Groff v. Dejoy Five Justices' turns: 52 to the petitioner, 64 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| United States v. Hansen Five Justices' turns: 66 to the petitioner, 39 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: respondent |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Samia v. United States Five Justices' turns: 63 to the petitioner, 42 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Slack Technologies v. Pirani Five Justices' turns: 36 to the petitioner, 25 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Dupree v. Younger Five Justices' turns: 23 to the petitioner, 33 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Lac Du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Indians v. Coughlin Five Justices' turns: 58 to the petitioner, 17 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: respondent |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Pugin v. Garland Five Justices' turns: 53 to the petitioner, 59 to the respondent · more lawyers for the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✓ |
| Yegiazaryan v. Smagin Five Justices' turns: 42 to the petitioner, 29 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Respondent | ✗ |
| Lora v. United States Five Justices' turns: 45 to the petitioner, 37 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Biden v. Nebraska Five Justices' turns: 60 to the petitioner, 50 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Department of Education v. Brown Five Justices' turns: 44 to the petitioner, 35 to the respondent |
Respondent oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✗ |
| United States v. Texas Five Justices' turns: 81 to the petitioner, 91 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
| Financial Oversight and Management BD for Puerto Rico v. Centro de Periodismo Investigativo Five Justices' turns: 22 to the petitioner, 52 to the respondent |
Petitioner oral argument only: petitioner |
Petitioner | ✓ |
What we learned
- The paper reproduces on its own data. Our implementation scores 74.5% on the authors' feature table (they report 74.04%) and agrees with their published predictions on 93.4% of cases.
- The edge does not carry over. Recomputed from the Court's transcripts for a later decade, the same design beats the petitioner-wins baseline by +1.5 points, not the 6 to 8 points of the original; forecasting OT2022–OT2025 term by term, by +1.4 points, within chance, and in OT2025 it falls 5.3 points short.
- The argument still carries more information than the paperwork. As in the paper, case variables alone do worse than the baseline (58.1% on OT2010–OT2019; 63.8% on OT2022–OT2025), and the argument alone does about as well as both together (69.9% on OT2022–OT2025).
- The format of argument changed. The regularity the model leans on, that the side questioned more tends to lose, held in OT2010–OT2019 (57.6%) but not since the Court added turn-by-turn questioning in OT2020 (47.6%). A model trained on how the Justices used to question will misread how they question now.
- Data plumbing matters. Our first run, with a transcript parser that only knew the current nine Justices, made the signal look reversed. Fixing it (now in the site's parser) moved our counts into 94% agreement with an independent count of the raw transcripts.
The inputs the OT2025 model leaned on most:
- Net interruptions (respondent minus petitioner) 3.7%
- Which side had more lawyers arguing 3.6%
- Sotomayor: share of turns to the respondent that are questions 2.9%
- Sotomayor: share of turns to the petitioner that are questions 2.8%
- Lower court's ideological direction 2.7%
- Alito: share of turns to the petitioner that are questions 2.5%
- Kagan: share of turns to the respondent that are questions 2.4%
- Roberts: whom they cut off more 2.4%
- Issue area 2.4%
- Reason cert was granted 2.3%
Data and code
Every number on this page comes from /data/replication/kaufman.json: the check on the authors' data, the later-decade cross-validation, the four forecast terms and every case. The study profile is in /data/replication/studies.json. Transcripts: Supreme Court of the United States. Case data: Supreme Court Database, 2025 Release 01; OT2025 coded by SCOTUS Analytics. Authors' archive: doi:10.7910/DVN/JJCXTH.
Updated 2026-10-05. Questions or corrections: contact us.