{ "generated": "2026-10-05", "ot2022to2025": { "paperRule": { "perTerm": [ { "term": 2022, "trainTerms": "OT2020–OT2021 (previous Court; no tree for Jackson)", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 15 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2020–OT2020", "heldOutTerms": "OT2021–OT2021", "trainCases": 111, "cases": { "cases": 55, "correct": 30, "accuracy": 0.545, "ci95": [ 0.418, 0.673 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.636 }, "votes": { "cases": 451, "correct": 274, "accuracy": 0.608, "ci95": [ 0.563, 0.654 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.63 }, "rows": [ { "name": "SACKETT v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2022-001", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DELAWARE v. PENNSYLVANIA AND WISCONSIN", "caseId": "2022-002", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "0-8", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ARELLANO v. MCDONOUGH", "caseId": "2022-003", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ALLEN v. MILLIGAN", "caseId": "2022-004", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "REED v. GOERTZ", "caseId": "2022-005", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL v. ROSS", "caseId": "2022-006", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ANDY WARHOL FOUNDATION FOR THE VISUAL ARTS v. GOLDSMITH", "caseId": "2022-007", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP v. HEWITT", "caseId": "2022-008", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "STUDENTS FOR FAIR ADMISSIONS INC. v. PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE", "caseId": "2022-009", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "6-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CRUZ v. ARIZONA", "caseId": "2022-011", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JONES v. HENDRIX", "caseId": "2022-012", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BITTNER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-013", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "AXON ENTERPRISE v. FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION", "caseId": "2022-015", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MALLORY v. NORFOLK SOUTHERN RAILWAY CO.", "caseId": "2022-016", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY, INDIANA v. TALEVSKI", "caseId": "2022-017", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HAALAND v. BRACKEEN", "caseId": "2022-018", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "303 CREATIVE LLC v. ELENIS", "caseId": "2022-019", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BARTENWERFER v. BUCKLEY", "caseId": "2022-020", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "U.S., EX REL. POLANSKY v. EXECUTIVE HEALTH RESOURCES", "caseId": "2022-021", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PERCOCO v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-022", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WILKINS v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-023", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CIMINELLI v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-024", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MOAC MALL HOLDINGS LLC v. TRANSFORM HOLDCO LLC", "caseId": "2022-025", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MOORE v. HARPER", "caseId": "2022-026", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "OHIO ADJUTANT GENERAL’S DEPARTMENT v. FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY", "caseId": "2022-028", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GLACIER NORTHWEST v. INT'L BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS", "caseId": "2022-030", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT AND MANAGEMENT BD FOR PUERTO RICO v. CENTRO DE PERIODISMO INVESTIGATIVO", "caseId": "2022-031", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TURKIYE HALK BANKASI A.S. v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-032", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SANTOS-ZACARIA v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2022-033", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PEREZ v. STURGIS PUBLIC SCHOOLS", "caseId": "2022-034", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TWITTER v. TAAMNEH", "caseId": "2022-036", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DUBIN v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-037", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BIDEN v. NEBRASKA", "caseId": "2022-038", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION v. BROWN", "caseId": "2022-039", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "NEW YORK v. NEW JERSEY", "caseId": "2022-040", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "0-8", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. HANSEN", "caseId": "2022-041", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ARIZONA v. NAVAJO NATION", "caseId": "2022-042", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COINBASE, INC. v. BIELSKI", "caseId": "2022-043", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ABITRON AUSTRIA GMBH v. HETRONIC INT'L", "caseId": "2022-044", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "JACK DANIELS PROPERTIES v. VIP PRODUCTS LLC", "caseId": "2022-045", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "AMGEN INC. v. SANOFI", "caseId": "2022-046", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "LORA v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-047", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SMITH v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-048", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SAMIA v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-049", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "POLSELLI v. INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE", "caseId": "2022-050", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SLACK TECHNOLOGIES v. PIRANI", "caseId": "2022-051", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PUGIN v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2022-052", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GROFF v. DEJOY", "caseId": "2022-053", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES EX REL. SCHUTTE v. SUPERVALU INC.", "caseId": "2022-054", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COUNTERMAN v. COLORADO", "caseId": "2022-055", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "LAC DU FLAMBEAU BAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR CHIPPEWA INDIANS v. COUGHLIN", "caseId": "2022-056", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "Indian or tribe", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DUPREE v. YOUNGER", "caseId": "2022-057", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "YEGIAZARYAN v. SMAGIN", "caseId": "2022-058", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TYLER v. HENNEPIN COUNTY, MINNESOTA", "caseId": "2022-059", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2022-062", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } } ] }, { "term": 2023, "trainTerms": "OT2022–OT2022 (current Court)", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 25 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2022 (first two-thirds of decisions)", "heldOutTerms": "OT2022 (last third)", "trainCases": 55, "cases": { "cases": 55, "correct": 40, "accuracy": 0.727, "ci95": [ 0.6, 0.836 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.727 }, "votes": { "cases": 493, "correct": 338, "accuracy": 0.686, "ci95": [ 0.645, 0.726 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.669 }, "rows": [ { "name": "PULSIFER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-001", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU v. COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SERVICES ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, LIMITED", "caseId": "2023-002", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ACHESON HOTELS, LLC v. LAUFER", "caseId": "2023-003", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MURRAY v. UBS SECURITIES, LLC", "caseId": "2023-004", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GREAT LAKES INSURANCE SE v. RAIDERS RETREAT REALTY CO., LLC", "caseId": "2023-005", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "14", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ALEXANDER v. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE CONFERENCE OF THE NAACP", "caseId": "2023-006", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CULLEY v. MARSHALL", "caseId": "2023-007", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "LINDKE v. FREED", "caseId": "2023-008", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "VIDAL v. ELSTER", "caseId": "2023-010", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL HOUSING SERVICE v. KIRTZ", "caseId": "2023-011", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. RAHIMI", "caseId": "2023-012", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "RUDISILL v. MCDONOUGH", "caseId": "2023-013", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MULDROW v. CITY OF ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI", "caseId": "2023-014", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "LOPER BRIGHT ENTERPRISES v. RAIMONDO", "caseId": "2023-015", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "6-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WILKINSON v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2023-016", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CAMPOS-CHAVES v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2023-017", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MCELRATH v. GEORGIA", "caseId": "2023-018", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MOORE v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-019", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION v. JARKESY", "caseId": "2023-020", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BROWN v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-021", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HARRINGTON v. PURDUE PHARMA L.P.", "caseId": "2023-022", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION v. FIKRE", "caseId": "2023-024", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SHEETZ v. COUNTY OF EL DORADO, CALIFORNIA", "caseId": "2023-025", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "OFFICE OF THE U.S. TRUSTEE v. JOHN Q. HAMMONS FALL 2006, LLC", "caseId": "2023-026", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SMITH v. ARIZONA", "caseId": "2023-027", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE CORP. v. MOAB PARTNERS, L.P.", "caseId": "2023-028", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEVILLIER v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2023-029", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CORNER POST v. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM", "caseId": "2023-032", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BISSONNETTE v. LEPAGE BAKERIES PARK ST., LLC", "caseId": "2023-033", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "OHIO v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2023-034", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WARNER CHAPPELL MUSIC v. NEAL", "caseId": "2023-035", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MCINTOSH v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-037", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CANTERO v. BANK OF AMERICA", "caseId": "2023-038", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GARLAND v. CARGILL", "caseId": "2023-039", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COINBASE v. SUSKI", "caseId": "2023-040", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MURTHY v. MISSOURI", "caseId": "2023-041", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA v. VULLO", "caseId": "2023-042", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "DIAZ v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-043", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TRUCK INSURANCE EXCHANGE v. KAISER GYPSUM COMPANY", "caseId": "2023-044", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-3", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TEXAS v. NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO", "caseId": "2023-046", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BECERRA v. SAN CARLOS APACHE TRIBE", "caseId": "2023-047", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HARROW v. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE", "caseId": "2023-048", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION v. ALLIANCE FOR HIPPOCRATIC MEDICINE", "caseId": "2023-049", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "5", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ERLINGER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-050", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CONNELLY v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-051", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SNYDER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-052", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CHIAVERINI v. CITY OF NAPOLEON, OHIO", "caseId": "2023-053", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "FISCHER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-054", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "THORNELL v. JONES", "caseId": "2023-055", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CITY OF GRANTS PASS, OREGON v. JOHNSON", "caseId": "2023-056", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SMITH v. SPIZZIRRI", "caseId": "2023-057", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEPARTMENT OF STATE v. MUñOZ", "caseId": "2023-058", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "STARBUCKS CORP. v. MCKINNEY", "caseId": "2023-059", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TRUMP v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-061", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MOODY v. NETCHOICE, LLC", "caseId": "2023-062", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } } ] }, { "term": 2024, "trainTerms": "OT2022–OT2023 (current Court)", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 25 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2022–OT2022", "heldOutTerms": "OT2023–OT2023", "trainCases": 110, "cases": { "cases": 56, "correct": 41, "accuracy": 0.732, "ci95": [ 0.607, 0.839 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.75 }, "votes": { "cases": 501, "correct": 333, "accuracy": 0.665, "ci95": [ 0.623, 0.705 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.671 }, "rows": [ { "name": "BOUARFA v. MAYORKAS", "caseId": "2024-001", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MEDICAL MARIJUANA, INC. v. HORN", "caseId": "2024-002", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FDA v. WAGES AND WHITE LION INVESTMENTS, LLC", "caseId": "2024-003", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WILLIAMS v. REED", "caseId": "2024-004", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BONDI v. VANDERSTOK", "caseId": "2024-005", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "LACKEY v. STINNIE", "caseId": "2024-006", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "6", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GLOSSIP v. OKLAHOMA", "caseId": "2024-007", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "6-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2024-008", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BUFKIN v. COLLINS", "caseId": "2024-009", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WISCONSIN BELL v. U.S., EX REL. TODD HEATH", "caseId": "2024-010", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ADVOCATE CHRIST MEDICAL CENTER v. KENNEDY", "caseId": "2024-011", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "E.M.D. SALES v. CARRERA", "caseId": "2024-012", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "VELAZQUEZ v. BONDI", "caseId": "2024-014", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DELLIGATTI v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-015", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. MILLER", "caseId": "2024-017", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "REPUBLIC OF HUNGARY v. SIMON", "caseId": "2024-018", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. SKRMETTI", "caseId": "2024-019", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "KOUSISIS v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-020", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FELICIANO v. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION", "caseId": "2024-021", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SEVEN COUNTY INFASTRUCTURE COALITION v. EAGLE COUNTY, COLORADO", "caseId": "2024-022", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-3", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEWBERRY GROUP v. DEWBERRY ENGINEERS", "caseId": "2024-023", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HEWITT v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-024", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "STANLEY v. CITY OF SANFORD, FLORIDA", "caseId": "2024-026", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "THOMPSON v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-027", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WAETZIG v. HALLIBURTON ENERGY SERVICES", "caseId": "2024-028", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FREE SPEECH COALITION v. PAXTON", "caseId": "2024-029", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION v. R.J. REYNOLDS VAPOR CO.", "caseId": "2024-030", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MCLAUGHLIN CHIROPRACTIC ASSOCIATES v. MCKESSON CORPORATION", "caseId": "2024-031", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BARNES v. FELIX", "caseId": "2024-032", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CUNNINGHAM v. CORNELL UNIVERSITY", "caseId": "2024-033", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GUTIERREZ v. SAENZ", "caseId": "2024-034", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ESTERAS v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-035", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PERTTU v. RICHARDS", "caseId": "2024-036", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "AMES v. OHIO DEPARTMENT OF YOUTH SERVICES", "caseId": "2024-037", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CC/DEVAS (MAURITIUS) LIMITED v. ANTRIX CORP. LTD.", "caseId": "2024-038", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BLOM BANK SAL v. HONICKMAN", "caseId": "2024-039", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SMITH & WESSON BRANDS v. ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS", "caseId": "2024-040", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2024-041", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "OKLAHOMA v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2024-043", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY v. CALUMET SHREVEPORT REFINING, LLC", "caseId": "2024-045", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "RILEY v. BONDI", "caseId": "2024-046", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION v. CONSUMERS' RESEARCH", "caseId": "2024-048", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ROYAL CANIN U.S.A., INC. v. WULLSCHLEGER", "caseId": "2024-050", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CATHOLIC CHARITIES BUREAU v. WISCONSIN LABOR & INDUSTRY REVIEW COMMISSION", "caseId": "2024-051", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "RIVERS v. GUERRERO", "caseId": "2024-052", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FULD v. PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION", "caseId": "2024-053", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MEDINA v. PLANNED PARENTHOOD SOUTH ATLANTIC", "caseId": "2024-054", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "KENNEDY v. BRAIDWOOD MANAGEMENT", "caseId": "2024-055", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "PARRISH v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-056", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COMMISSIONER OF INTERNAL REVENUE v. ZUCH", "caseId": "2024-057", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MAHMOUD v. TAYLOR", "caseId": "2024-058", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "DIAMOND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY LLC v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2024-059", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SOTO v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-060", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "A.J.T. v. OSSEO AREA SCHOOLS, INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 279", "caseId": "2024-061", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MARTIN v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-062", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES v. CASA, INC.", "caseId": "2024-065", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } } ] }, { "term": 2025, "trainTerms": "OT2022–OT2024 (current Court)", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2022–OT2023", "heldOutTerms": "OT2024–OT2024", "trainCases": 166, "cases": { "cases": 56, "correct": 35, "accuracy": 0.625, "ci95": [ 0.5, 0.75 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.661 }, "votes": { "cases": 501, "correct": 321, "accuracy": 0.641, "ci95": [ 0.599, 0.683 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.563 }, "rows": [ { "name": "Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump", "caseId": "2025-001", "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corp.", "caseId": "2025-002", "slug": "galette-v-nj-transit", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Urias-Orellana v. Bondi", "caseId": "2025-003", "slug": "urias-orellana-v-bondi", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment", "caseId": "2025-004", "slug": "cox-v-sony", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Chiles v. Salazar", "caseId": "2025-005", "slug": "chiles-v-salazar", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish", "caseId": "2025-006", "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel", "caseId": "2025-007", "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "First Choice Women's Resource Centers, Inc. v. Davenport", "caseId": "2025-008", "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Louisiana v. Callais", "caseId": "2025-009", "slug": "louisiana-v-callais", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC", "caseId": "2025-010", "slug": "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Havana Docks Corp. v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-011", "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Flowers Foods, Inc. v. Brock", "caseId": "2025-012", "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FCC v. AT&T", "caseId": "2025-013", "slug": "fcc-v-att", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. v. Amarin Pharma, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-014", "slug": "hikma-v-amarin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Sripetch v. SEC", "caseId": "2025-015", "slug": "sripetch-v-sec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-016", "slug": "fs-credit-opportunities-v-saba-capital-master", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-017", "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hunter v. United States", "caseId": "2025-018", "slug": "hunter-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "T. M. v. University of Md. Medical System Corporation", "caseId": "2025-019", "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "United States v. Hemani", "caseId": "2025-020", "slug": "us-v-hemani", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Blanche v. Lau", "caseId": "2025-021", "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cisco Systems, Inc. v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-022", "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-1", "actualVotes": "6-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación Cimex, S. A. (Cuba)", "caseId": "2025-023", "slug": "exxon-v-cimex", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Landor v. Louisiana Dept of Corrections and Public Safety", "caseId": "2025-024", "slug": "landor-v-louisiana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pung v. Isabella County", "caseId": "2025-025", "slug": "pung-v-isabella-county", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Monsanto v. Durnell", "caseId": "2025-026", "slug": "monsanto-v-durnell", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-027", "slug": "mullin-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Al Otro Lado", "caseId": "2025-028", "slug": "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Wolford v. Lopez", "caseId": "2025-029", "slug": "wolford-v-lopez", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chatrie v. United States", "caseId": "2025-030", "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Slaughter", "caseId": "2025-032", "slug": "trump-v-slaughter", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Watson v. Republican National Committee", "caseId": "2025-033", "slug": "watson-v-rnc", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "politician or candidate", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-034", "slug": "little-v-hecox", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Comm'n", "caseId": "2025-035", "slug": "nrsc-v-fec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Barbara", "caseId": "2025-036", "slug": "trump-v-barbara", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-037", "slug": "west-virginia-v-bpj", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "M & K Employee Solutions, Inc. v. Trustees of IAM Nat. Pension", "caseId": "2025-038", "slug": "m-and-k-v-iam-pension-fund", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rico v. United States", "caseId": "2025-039", "slug": "rico-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Postal Service v. Konan", "caseId": "2025-040", "slug": "postal-service-v-konan", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Berk v. Choy", "caseId": "2025-041", "slug": "berk-v-choy", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Ellingburg v. United States", "caseId": "2025-042", "slug": "ellingburg-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bowe v. United States", "caseId": "2025-043", "slug": "bowe-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Fernandez v. United States", "caseId": "2025-044", "slug": "fernandez-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Villarreal v. Texas", "caseId": "2025-045", "slug": "villarreal-v-texas", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bost v. Illinois Bd. of Elections", "caseId": "2025-046", "slug": "bost-v-illinois-bd-of-elections", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Barrett v. United States", "caseId": "2025-047", "slug": "barrett-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Case v. Montana", "caseId": "2025-048", "slug": "case-v-montana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Hain Celestial Group, Inc. v. Palmquist", "caseId": "2025-049", "slug": "hain-celestial-group-v-palmquist", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pitchford v. Cain", "caseId": "2025-050", "slug": "pitchford-v-cain", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Geo Group, Inc. v. Menocal", "caseId": "2025-051", "slug": "geo-group-v-menocal", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton", "caseId": "2025-052", "slug": "coney-island-auto-parts-unlimited-v-burton", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rutherford v. United States", "caseId": "2025-053", "slug": "rutherford-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hencely v. Fluor Corp.", "caseId": "2025-055", "slug": "hencely-v-fluor", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Olivier v. City of Brandon", "caseId": "2025-056", "slug": "olivier-v-city-of-brandon", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Abouammo v. United States", "caseId": "2025-057", "slug": "abouammo-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties", "caseId": "2025-058", "slug": "jules-v-andre-balazs-properties", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } } ] } ], "pooled": { "cases": 222, "correct": 146, "accuracy": 0.658, "ci95": [ 0.595, 0.721 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.694 }, "pooledVotes": { "cases": 1946, "correct": 1266, "accuracy": 0.651, "baselineAccuracy": 0.633 }, "predictedPetitioner": 198 }, "sinceOT2020": { "perTerm": [ { "term": 2022, "trainTerms": "OT2020–OT2021", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 15 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2020–OT2020", "heldOutTerms": "OT2021–OT2021", "trainCases": 111, "cases": { "cases": 55, "correct": 30, "accuracy": 0.545, "ci95": [ 0.418, 0.673 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.636 }, "votes": { "cases": 451, "correct": 274, "accuracy": 0.608, "ci95": [ 0.563, 0.654 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.63 }, "rows": [ { "name": "SACKETT v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2022-001", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DELAWARE v. PENNSYLVANIA AND WISCONSIN", "caseId": "2022-002", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "0-8", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ARELLANO v. MCDONOUGH", "caseId": "2022-003", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ALLEN v. MILLIGAN", "caseId": "2022-004", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "REED v. GOERTZ", "caseId": "2022-005", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL v. ROSS", "caseId": "2022-006", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ANDY WARHOL FOUNDATION FOR THE VISUAL ARTS v. GOLDSMITH", "caseId": "2022-007", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP v. HEWITT", "caseId": "2022-008", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "STUDENTS FOR FAIR ADMISSIONS INC. v. PRESIDENT & FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE", "caseId": "2022-009", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "6-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CRUZ v. ARIZONA", "caseId": "2022-011", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JONES v. HENDRIX", "caseId": "2022-012", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BITTNER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-013", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "AXON ENTERPRISE v. FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION", "caseId": "2022-015", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MALLORY v. NORFOLK SOUTHERN RAILWAY CO.", "caseId": "2022-016", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY, INDIANA v. TALEVSKI", "caseId": "2022-017", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HAALAND v. BRACKEEN", "caseId": "2022-018", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "303 CREATIVE LLC v. ELENIS", "caseId": "2022-019", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BARTENWERFER v. BUCKLEY", "caseId": "2022-020", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "U.S., EX REL. POLANSKY v. EXECUTIVE HEALTH RESOURCES", "caseId": "2022-021", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PERCOCO v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-022", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WILKINS v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-023", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CIMINELLI v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-024", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MOAC MALL HOLDINGS LLC v. TRANSFORM HOLDCO LLC", "caseId": "2022-025", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MOORE v. HARPER", "caseId": "2022-026", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "OHIO ADJUTANT GENERAL’S DEPARTMENT v. FEDERAL LABOR RELATIONS AUTHORITY", "caseId": "2022-028", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GLACIER NORTHWEST v. INT'L BROTHERHOOD OF TEAMSTERS", "caseId": "2022-030", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT AND MANAGEMENT BD FOR PUERTO RICO v. CENTRO DE PERIODISMO INVESTIGATIVO", "caseId": "2022-031", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TURKIYE HALK BANKASI A.S. v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-032", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SANTOS-ZACARIA v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2022-033", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PEREZ v. STURGIS PUBLIC SCHOOLS", "caseId": "2022-034", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TWITTER v. TAAMNEH", "caseId": "2022-036", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DUBIN v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-037", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BIDEN v. NEBRASKA", "caseId": "2022-038", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION v. BROWN", "caseId": "2022-039", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "NEW YORK v. NEW JERSEY", "caseId": "2022-040", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "0-8", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. HANSEN", "caseId": "2022-041", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ARIZONA v. NAVAJO NATION", "caseId": "2022-042", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COINBASE, INC. v. BIELSKI", "caseId": "2022-043", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ABITRON AUSTRIA GMBH v. HETRONIC INT'L", "caseId": "2022-044", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "JACK DANIELS PROPERTIES v. VIP PRODUCTS LLC", "caseId": "2022-045", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "AMGEN INC. v. SANOFI", "caseId": "2022-046", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "LORA v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-047", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SMITH v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-048", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SAMIA v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2022-049", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "POLSELLI v. INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE", "caseId": "2022-050", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SLACK TECHNOLOGIES v. PIRANI", "caseId": "2022-051", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PUGIN v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2022-052", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GROFF v. DEJOY", "caseId": "2022-053", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES EX REL. SCHUTTE v. SUPERVALU INC.", "caseId": "2022-054", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COUNTERMAN v. COLORADO", "caseId": "2022-055", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "LAC DU FLAMBEAU BAND OF LAKE SUPERIOR CHIPPEWA INDIANS v. COUGHLIN", "caseId": "2022-056", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "Indian or tribe", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DUPREE v. YOUNGER", "caseId": "2022-057", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "YEGIAZARYAN v. SMAGIN", "caseId": "2022-058", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TYLER v. HENNEPIN COUNTY, MINNESOTA", "caseId": "2022-059", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2022-062", "slug": null, "term": 2022, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "2-6", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } } ] }, { "term": 2023, "trainTerms": "OT2020–OT2022", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2020–OT2021", "heldOutTerms": "OT2022–OT2022", "trainCases": 166, "cases": { "cases": 55, "correct": 39, "accuracy": 0.709, "ci95": [ 0.582, 0.818 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.727 }, "votes": { "cases": 493, "correct": 327, "accuracy": 0.663, "ci95": [ 0.623, 0.706 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.669 }, "rows": [ { "name": "PULSIFER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-001", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU v. COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SERVICES ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, LIMITED", "caseId": "2023-002", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ACHESON HOTELS, LLC v. LAUFER", "caseId": "2023-003", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MURRAY v. UBS SECURITIES, LLC", "caseId": "2023-004", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GREAT LAKES INSURANCE SE v. RAIDERS RETREAT REALTY CO., LLC", "caseId": "2023-005", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "14", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ALEXANDER v. SOUTH CAROLINA STATE CONFERENCE OF THE NAACP", "caseId": "2023-006", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CULLEY v. MARSHALL", "caseId": "2023-007", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "LINDKE v. FREED", "caseId": "2023-008", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "VIDAL v. ELSTER", "caseId": "2023-010", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL HOUSING SERVICE v. KIRTZ", "caseId": "2023-011", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. RAHIMI", "caseId": "2023-012", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "RUDISILL v. MCDONOUGH", "caseId": "2023-013", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MULDROW v. CITY OF ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI", "caseId": "2023-014", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "LOPER BRIGHT ENTERPRISES v. RAIMONDO", "caseId": "2023-015", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-2", "actualVotes": "6-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WILKINSON v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2023-016", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CAMPOS-CHAVES v. GARLAND", "caseId": "2023-017", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MCELRATH v. GEORGIA", "caseId": "2023-018", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MOORE v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-019", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION v. JARKESY", "caseId": "2023-020", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BROWN v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-021", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HARRINGTON v. PURDUE PHARMA L.P.", "caseId": "2023-022", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION v. FIKRE", "caseId": "2023-024", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SHEETZ v. COUNTY OF EL DORADO, CALIFORNIA", "caseId": "2023-025", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "OFFICE OF THE U.S. TRUSTEE v. JOHN Q. HAMMONS FALL 2006, LLC", "caseId": "2023-026", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SMITH v. ARIZONA", "caseId": "2023-027", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE CORP. v. MOAB PARTNERS, L.P.", "caseId": "2023-028", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEVILLIER v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2023-029", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CORNER POST v. BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM", "caseId": "2023-032", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BISSONNETTE v. LEPAGE BAKERIES PARK ST., LLC", "caseId": "2023-033", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "OHIO v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2023-034", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WARNER CHAPPELL MUSIC v. NEAL", "caseId": "2023-035", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MCINTOSH v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-037", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CANTERO v. BANK OF AMERICA", "caseId": "2023-038", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GARLAND v. CARGILL", "caseId": "2023-039", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COINBASE v. SUSKI", "caseId": "2023-040", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MURTHY v. MISSOURI", "caseId": "2023-041", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA v. VULLO", "caseId": "2023-042", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "DIAZ v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-043", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TRUCK INSURANCE EXCHANGE v. KAISER GYPSUM COMPANY", "caseId": "2023-044", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-3", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TEXAS v. NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO", "caseId": "2023-046", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BECERRA v. SAN CARLOS APACHE TRIBE", "caseId": "2023-047", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HARROW v. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE", "caseId": "2023-048", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION v. ALLIANCE FOR HIPPOCRATIC MEDICINE", "caseId": "2023-049", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "5", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ERLINGER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-050", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CONNELLY v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-051", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SNYDER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-052", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CHIAVERINI v. CITY OF NAPOLEON, OHIO", "caseId": "2023-053", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "FISCHER v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-054", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "THORNELL v. JONES", "caseId": "2023-055", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CITY OF GRANTS PASS, OREGON v. JOHNSON", "caseId": "2023-056", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SMITH v. SPIZZIRRI", "caseId": "2023-057", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEPARTMENT OF STATE v. MUñOZ", "caseId": "2023-058", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "STARBUCKS CORP. v. MCKINNEY", "caseId": "2023-059", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TRUMP v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2023-061", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MOODY v. NETCHOICE, LLC", "caseId": "2023-062", "slug": null, "term": 2023, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } } ] }, { "term": 2024, "trainTerms": "OT2020–OT2023", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2020–OT2021", "heldOutTerms": "OT2022–OT2023", "trainCases": 221, "cases": { "cases": 56, "correct": 36, "accuracy": 0.643, "ci95": [ 0.518, 0.768 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.75 }, "votes": { "cases": 501, "correct": 349, "accuracy": 0.697, "ci95": [ 0.657, 0.737 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.671 }, "rows": [ { "name": "BOUARFA v. MAYORKAS", "caseId": "2024-001", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MEDICAL MARIJUANA, INC. v. HORN", "caseId": "2024-002", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FDA v. WAGES AND WHITE LION INVESTMENTS, LLC", "caseId": "2024-003", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WILLIAMS v. REED", "caseId": "2024-004", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BONDI v. VANDERSTOK", "caseId": "2024-005", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "LACKEY v. STINNIE", "caseId": "2024-006", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "6", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GLOSSIP v. OKLAHOMA", "caseId": "2024-007", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-3", "actualVotes": "6-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2024-008", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BUFKIN v. COLLINS", "caseId": "2024-009", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WISCONSIN BELL v. U.S., EX REL. TODD HEATH", "caseId": "2024-010", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ADVOCATE CHRIST MEDICAL CENTER v. KENNEDY", "caseId": "2024-011", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "E.M.D. SALES v. CARRERA", "caseId": "2024-012", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "VELAZQUEZ v. BONDI", "caseId": "2024-014", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DELLIGATTI v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-015", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. MILLER", "caseId": "2024-017", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "REPUBLIC OF HUNGARY v. SIMON", "caseId": "2024-018", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. SKRMETTI", "caseId": "2024-019", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "KOUSISIS v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-020", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FELICIANO v. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION", "caseId": "2024-021", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SEVEN COUNTY INFASTRUCTURE COALITION v. EAGLE COUNTY, COLORADO", "caseId": "2024-022", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DEWBERRY GROUP v. DEWBERRY ENGINEERS", "caseId": "2024-023", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HEWITT v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-024", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "3-6", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "STANLEY v. CITY OF SANFORD, FLORIDA", "caseId": "2024-026", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "THOMPSON v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-027", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WAETZIG v. HALLIBURTON ENERGY SERVICES", "caseId": "2024-028", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FREE SPEECH COALITION v. PAXTON", "caseId": "2024-029", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION v. R.J. REYNOLDS VAPOR CO.", "caseId": "2024-030", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MCLAUGHLIN CHIROPRACTIC ASSOCIATES v. MCKESSON CORPORATION", "caseId": "2024-031", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BARNES v. FELIX", "caseId": "2024-032", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CUNNINGHAM v. CORNELL UNIVERSITY", "caseId": "2024-033", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "GUTIERREZ v. SAENZ", "caseId": "2024-034", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ESTERAS v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-035", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PERTTU v. RICHARDS", "caseId": "2024-036", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "AMES v. OHIO DEPARTMENT OF YOUTH SERVICES", "caseId": "2024-037", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CC/DEVAS (MAURITIUS) LIMITED v. ANTRIX CORP. LTD.", "caseId": "2024-038", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BLOM BANK SAL v. HONICKMAN", "caseId": "2024-039", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SMITH & WESSON BRANDS v. ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS", "caseId": "2024-040", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2024-041", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "3-6", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "OKLAHOMA v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2024-043", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY v. CALUMET SHREVEPORT REFINING, LLC", "caseId": "2024-045", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "RILEY v. BONDI", "caseId": "2024-046", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION v. CONSUMERS' RESEARCH", "caseId": "2024-048", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "ROYAL CANIN U.S.A., INC. v. WULLSCHLEGER", "caseId": "2024-050", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CATHOLIC CHARITIES BUREAU v. WISCONSIN LABOR & INDUSTRY REVIEW COMMISSION", "caseId": "2024-051", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "RIVERS v. GUERRERO", "caseId": "2024-052", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FULD v. PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION", "caseId": "2024-053", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MEDINA v. PLANNED PARENTHOOD SOUTH ATLANTIC", "caseId": "2024-054", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "KENNEDY v. BRAIDWOOD MANAGEMENT", "caseId": "2024-055", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "PARRISH v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-056", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "COMMISSIONER OF INTERNAL REVENUE v. ZUCH", "caseId": "2024-057", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MAHMOUD v. TAYLOR", "caseId": "2024-058", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "DIAMOND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY LLC v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY", "caseId": "2024-059", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "SOTO v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-060", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "A.J.T. v. OSSEO AREA SCHOOLS, INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT NO. 279", "caseId": "2024-061", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MARTIN v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2024-062", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES v. CASA, INC.", "caseId": "2024-065", "slug": null, "term": 2024, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } } ] }, { "term": 2025, "trainTerms": "OT2020–OT2024", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2020–OT2022", "heldOutTerms": "OT2023–OT2024", "trainCases": 277, "cases": { "cases": 56, "correct": 31, "accuracy": 0.554, "ci95": [ 0.429, 0.679 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.661 }, "votes": { "cases": 501, "correct": 328, "accuracy": 0.655, "ci95": [ 0.613, 0.695 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.563 }, "rows": [ { "name": "Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump", "caseId": "2025-001", "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corp.", "caseId": "2025-002", "slug": "galette-v-nj-transit", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Urias-Orellana v. Bondi", "caseId": "2025-003", "slug": "urias-orellana-v-bondi", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment", "caseId": "2025-004", "slug": "cox-v-sony", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Chiles v. Salazar", "caseId": "2025-005", "slug": "chiles-v-salazar", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish", "caseId": "2025-006", "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel", "caseId": "2025-007", "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "First Choice Women's Resource Centers, Inc. v. Davenport", "caseId": "2025-008", "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Louisiana v. Callais", "caseId": "2025-009", "slug": "louisiana-v-callais", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC", "caseId": "2025-010", "slug": "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Havana Docks Corp. v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-011", "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Flowers Foods, Inc. v. Brock", "caseId": "2025-012", "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FCC v. AT&T", "caseId": "2025-013", "slug": "fcc-v-att", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. v. Amarin Pharma, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-014", "slug": "hikma-v-amarin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Sripetch v. SEC", "caseId": "2025-015", "slug": "sripetch-v-sec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-016", "slug": "fs-credit-opportunities-v-saba-capital-master", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-017", "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hunter v. United States", "caseId": "2025-018", "slug": "hunter-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "3-6", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "T. M. v. University of Md. Medical System Corporation", "caseId": "2025-019", "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "United States v. Hemani", "caseId": "2025-020", "slug": "us-v-hemani", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Blanche v. Lau", "caseId": "2025-021", "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cisco Systems, Inc. v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-022", "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-1", "actualVotes": "6-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación Cimex, S. A. (Cuba)", "caseId": "2025-023", "slug": "exxon-v-cimex", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Landor v. Louisiana Dept of Corrections and Public Safety", "caseId": "2025-024", "slug": "landor-v-louisiana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pung v. Isabella County", "caseId": "2025-025", "slug": "pung-v-isabella-county", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Monsanto v. Durnell", "caseId": "2025-026", "slug": "monsanto-v-durnell", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-027", "slug": "mullin-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Al Otro Lado", "caseId": "2025-028", "slug": "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Wolford v. Lopez", "caseId": "2025-029", "slug": "wolford-v-lopez", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chatrie v. United States", "caseId": "2025-030", "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Slaughter", "caseId": "2025-032", "slug": "trump-v-slaughter", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Watson v. Republican National Committee", "caseId": "2025-033", "slug": "watson-v-rnc", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "politician or candidate", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-034", "slug": "little-v-hecox", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Comm'n", "caseId": "2025-035", "slug": "nrsc-v-fec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Barbara", "caseId": "2025-036", "slug": "trump-v-barbara", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-037", "slug": "west-virginia-v-bpj", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "M & K Employee Solutions, Inc. v. Trustees of IAM Nat. Pension", "caseId": "2025-038", "slug": "m-and-k-v-iam-pension-fund", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rico v. United States", "caseId": "2025-039", "slug": "rico-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Postal Service v. Konan", "caseId": "2025-040", "slug": "postal-service-v-konan", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Berk v. Choy", "caseId": "2025-041", "slug": "berk-v-choy", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Ellingburg v. United States", "caseId": "2025-042", "slug": "ellingburg-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bowe v. United States", "caseId": "2025-043", "slug": "bowe-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Fernandez v. United States", "caseId": "2025-044", "slug": "fernandez-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Villarreal v. Texas", "caseId": "2025-045", "slug": "villarreal-v-texas", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bost v. Illinois Bd. of Elections", "caseId": "2025-046", "slug": "bost-v-illinois-bd-of-elections", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Barrett v. United States", "caseId": "2025-047", "slug": "barrett-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Case v. Montana", "caseId": "2025-048", "slug": "case-v-montana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Hain Celestial Group, Inc. v. Palmquist", "caseId": "2025-049", "slug": "hain-celestial-group-v-palmquist", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pitchford v. Cain", "caseId": "2025-050", "slug": "pitchford-v-cain", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Geo Group, Inc. v. Menocal", "caseId": "2025-051", "slug": "geo-group-v-menocal", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton", "caseId": "2025-052", "slug": "coney-island-auto-parts-unlimited-v-burton", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rutherford v. United States", "caseId": "2025-053", "slug": "rutherford-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hencely v. Fluor Corp.", "caseId": "2025-055", "slug": "hencely-v-fluor", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Olivier v. City of Brandon", "caseId": "2025-056", "slug": "olivier-v-city-of-brandon", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Abouammo v. United States", "caseId": "2025-057", "slug": "abouammo-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties", "caseId": "2025-058", "slug": "jules-v-andre-balazs-properties", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } } ] } ], "pooled": { "cases": 222, "correct": 136, "accuracy": 0.613, "ci95": [ 0.545, 0.676 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.694 }, "pooledVotes": { "cases": 1946, "correct": 1278, "accuracy": 0.657, "baselineAccuracy": 0.633 }, "predictedPetitioner": 182 } }, "paper": { "citation": "Theodore W. Ruger, Pauline T. Kim, Andrew D. Martin & Kevin M. Quinn, The Supreme Court Forecasting Project: Legal and Political Science Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decisionmaking, 104 Colum. L. Rev. 1150 (2004); Andrew D. Martin et al., Competing Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decision Making, 2 Perspectives on Politics 761 (2004)", "reported": { "term": "OT2002", "cases": 68, "caseAccuracy": 0.75, "caseAccuracyAsPosted": 0.68, "voteAccuracy": 0.667, "expertCaseAccuracy": 0.591, "expertConsensusAccuracy": 0.656, "expertVoteAccuracy": 0.679, "training": "628 cases of the second Rehnquist Court decided before OT2002" } }, "reproduction": { "test": "OT2002", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25 }, "specSearch": [ { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.593 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.527 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.566 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.593 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.58 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.659 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.562 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.527 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.571 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.54 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.615 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.664 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.584 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.54 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.566 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.593 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.584 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.659 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.575 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.549 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.562 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.54 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.615 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.664 } ], "inSampleTerms": "OT1994–OT1998", "heldOutTerms": "OT1999–OT2001", "trainCases": 630, "cases": { "cases": 69, "correct": 45, "accuracy": 0.652, "ci95": [ 0.536, 0.768 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.71 }, "votes": { "cases": 618, "correct": 382, "accuracy": 0.618, "ci95": [ 0.579, 0.655 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.65 }, "rows": [ { "name": "SYNGENTA CROP PROTECTION, INC., ROBERT BABB, EDEE TEMPLET, AND KENNETH A. DEVUN v. HURLEY HENSON", "caseId": "2002-005", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "YELLOW TRANSPORTATION, INC. v. MICHIGAN, et al.", "caseId": "2002-006", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "REX R. SPRIETSMA, ADMINISTRATOR OF THE ESTATE OF JEANNE SPRIETSMA, DECEASED v. MERCURY MARINE, A DIVISION OF BRUNSWICK CORPORATION", "caseId": "2002-007", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES, et al. v. THOMAS LAMAR BEAN", "caseId": "2002-008", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "KAREN HOWSAM, ETC. v. DEAN WITTER REYNOLDS, INC.", "caseId": "2002-009", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "0-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DAVID ALLEN SATTAZAHN v. PENNSYLVANIA", "caseId": "2002-012", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "PIERCE COUNTY, WASHINGTON v. IGNACIO GUILLEN, LEGAL GUARDIAN OF JENNIFER GUILLEN AND ALMA GUILLEN, MINORS, et al.", "caseId": "2002-013", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "JO ANNE B. BARNHART, COMMISSIONER OF SOCIAL SECURITY v. PEABODY COAL COMPANY et al.", "caseId": "2002-014", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ERIC ELDRED, et al. v. JOHN D. ASHCROFT, ATTORNEY GENERAL", "caseId": "2002-015", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. FRANCISCO JIMENEZ RECIO AND ADRIAN LOPEZ-MEZA", "caseId": "2002-016", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DAVID MEYER, INDIVIDUALLY AND IN HIS CAPACITY AS PRESIDENT AND DESIGNATED OFFICER/BROKER OF TRIAD, INC., ETC. v. EMMA MARY ELLEN HOLLEY, ET VIR, et al.", "caseId": "2002-017", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION v. NEXTWAVE PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS INC. et al.", "caseId": "2002-018", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "THOMAS JOE MILLER-EL v. JANIE COCKRELL, DIRECTOR, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE, INSTITUTIONAL DIVISION", "caseId": "2002-019", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL AND HEALTH SERVICES, et al. v. GUARDIANSHIP ESTATE OF DANNY KEFFELER et al.", "caseId": "2002-020", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SCHEIDLER v. NATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR WOMEN, INC.", "caseId": "2002-021", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "5", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "VICTOR MOSELEY AND CATHY MOSELEY, DBA VICTOR'S LITTLE SECRET v. V SECRET CATALOGUE, INC., et al.", "caseId": "2002-022", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "THE BOEING COMPANY AND CONSOLIDATED SUBSIDIARIES v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2002-023", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "12", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. WHITE MOUNTAIN APACHE TRIBE", "caseId": "2002-024", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES v. NAVAJO NATION", "caseId": "2002-025", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ERICK CORNELL CLAY v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2002-026", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CONNECTICUT DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY, et al. v. JOHN DOE, INDIVIDUALLY AND ON BEHALF OF ALL OTHERS SIMILARLY SITUATED", "caseId": "2002-027", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "GARY ALBERT EWING v. CALIFORNIA", "caseId": "2002-028", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BILL LOCKYER, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF CALIFORNIA v. LEANDRO ANDRADE", "caseId": "2002-029", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DELBERT W. SMITH AND BRUCE M. BOTELHO v. JOHN DOE I et al.", "caseId": "2002-030", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "COOK COUNTY, ILLINOIS v. UNITED STATES ex rel. JANET CHANDLER", "caseId": "2002-031", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "NORFOLK & WESTERN RAILWAY COMPANY v. FREEMAN AYERS et al.", "caseId": "2002-032", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CITY OF CUYAHOGA FALLS, OHIO, et al. v. BUCKEYE COMMUNITY HOPE FOUNDATION et al.", "caseId": "2002-033", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JEANNE WOODFORD, WARDEN v. ROBERT FREDERICK GARCEAU", "caseId": "2002-034", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ALLEN D. BROWN AND GREG HAYES v. LEGAL FOUNDATION OF WASHINGTON et al.", "caseId": "2002-035", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BEATRICE BRANCH, et al. v. JOHN ROBERT SMITH et al.", "caseId": "2002-036", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "2-7", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "A. ELLIOTT ARCHER, ET UX. v. ARLENE L. WARNER", "caseId": "2002-037", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "KENTUCKY ASSOCIATION OF HEALTH PLANS, INC., et al. v. JANIE A. MILLER, COMMISSIONER, KENTUCKY DEPARTMENT OF INSURANCE", "caseId": "2002-038", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "VIRGINIA v. BARRY ELTON BLACK, RICHARD J. ELLIOTT, AND JONATHAN O'MARA", "caseId": "2002-039", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "PACIFICARE HEALTH SYSTEMS, INC., et al. v. JEFFREY BOOK et al.", "caseId": "2002-040", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-1", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE COMPANY v. INEZ PREECE CAMPBELL AND MATTHEW C. BARNECK, SPECIAL ADMINISTRATOR AND PERSONAL REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ESTATE OF CURTIS B. CAMPBELL", "caseId": "2002-041", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "CLACKAMAS GASTROENTEROLOGY ASSOCIATES, P. C. v. DEBORAH WELLS", "caseId": "2002-042", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "SUSAN JINKS v. RICHLAND COUNTY, SOUTH CAROLINA", "caseId": "2002-043", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DOLE FOOD COMPANY, et al. v. GERARDO DENNIS PATRICKSON et al.", "caseId": "2002-044", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FRANCHISE TAX BOARD OF CALIFORNIA v. GILBERT P. HYATT, et al.", "caseId": "2002-045", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "11", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JOSEPH MASSARO v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2002-046", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CHARLES DEMORE, DISTRICT DIRECTOR, SAN FRANCISCO DISTRICT OF IMMIGRATION AND NATURALIZATION SERVICE, et al. v. HYUNG JOON KIM", "caseId": "2002-047", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "JOSEPH C. ROELL, PETRA GARIBAY, AND JAMES REAGAN v. JON MICHAEL WITHROW", "caseId": "2002-048", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ILLINOIS ex rel. LISA MADIGAN, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF ILLINOIS v. TELEMARKETING ASSOCIATES, INC., et al.", "caseId": "2002-049", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JANETTE PRICE, WARDEN v. DUYONN ANDRE VINCENT", "caseId": "2002-051", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "PHARMACEUTICAL RESEARCH AND MANUFACTURERS OF AMERICA v. PETER E. WALSH, ACTING COMMISSIONER, MAINE DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN SERVICES, et al.", "caseId": "2002-052", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "PHILLIP T. BREUER v. JIM'S CONCRETE OF BREVARD, INC.", "caseId": "2002-053", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "INYO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA, et al. v. PAIUTE-SHOSHONE INDIANS OF THE BISHOP COMMUNITY OF THE BISHOP COLONY et al.", "caseId": "2002-054", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "Indian or tribe", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "NEVADA DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN RESOURCES, et al. v. WILLIAM HIBBS et al.", "caseId": "2002-057", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BEN CHAVEZ v. OLIVERIO MARTINEZ", "caseId": "2002-058", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "THE BLACK & DECKER DISABILITY PLAN v. KENNETH L. NORD", "caseId": "2002-060", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "BENEFICIAL NATIONAL BANK, et al. v. MARIE ANDERSON et al.", "caseId": "2002-062", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DASTAR CORPORATION v. TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX FILM CORPORATION et al.", "caseId": "2002-063", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-0", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "ENTERGY LOUISIANA, INC. v. LOUISIANA PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION et al.", "caseId": "2002-064", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "HILLSIDE DAIRY INC., A&A DAIRY, L&S DAIRY, AND MILKY WAY FARMS v. WILLIAM J. LYONS, JR., SECRETARY, CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE, et al.", "caseId": "2002-066", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "KHANH PHUONG NGUYEN v. UNITED STATES et al.", "caseId": "2002-067", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "DESERT PALACE, INC., DBA CAESARS PALACE HOTEL & CASINO v. CATHARINA F. COSTA", "caseId": "2002-068", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "MICHAEL FITZGERALD, TREASURER OF IOWA v. RACING ASSOCIATION OF CENTRAL IOWA et al.", "caseId": "2002-069", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "VIRGINIA v. KEVIN LAMONT HICKS", "caseId": "2002-072", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "WILLIAM OVERTON, DIRECTOR, MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS, et al. v. MICHELLE BAZZETTA et al.", "caseId": "2002-073", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION v. CHRISTINE BEAUMONT et al.", "caseId": "2002-074", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "CHARLES THOMAS SELL v. UNITED STATES", "caseId": "2002-075", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "UNITED STATES, et al. v. AMERICAN LIBRARY ASSOCIATION, INC., et al.", "caseId": "2002-076", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JENNIFER GRATZ AND PATRICK HAMACHER v. LEE BOLLINGER et al.", "caseId": "2002-077", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "BARBARA GRUTTER v. LEE BOLLINGER et al.", "caseId": "2002-078", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "AMERICAN INSURANCE ASSOCIATION, et al. v. JOHN GARAMENDI, INSURANCE COMMISSIONER, STATE OF CALIFORNIA", "caseId": "2002-079", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "GEORGIA v. JOHN ASHCROFT, ATTORNEY GENERAL, et al.", "caseId": "2002-081", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "other", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "KEVIN WIGGINS v. SEWALL SMITH, WARDEN, et al.", "caseId": "2002-082", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "JOHN GEDDES LAWRENCE AND TYRON GARNER v. TEXAS", "caseId": "2002-083", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "5", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "MARION REYNOLDS STOGNER v. CALIFORNIA", "caseId": "2002-084", "slug": null, "term": 2002, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } } ] }, "ot2025": { "trainTerms": "OT2022–OT2024 (current natural court)", "excluded": [ { "name": "Hamm v. Smith", "why": "dismissed as improvidently granted" } ], "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15 }, "specSearch": [ { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.411 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.429 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.536 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.571 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.679 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.732 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.518 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.571 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.625 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.589 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.75 }, { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.75 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.446 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.411 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.429 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.589 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.679 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": true, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.732 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 2, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.536 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 4, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.625 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 7, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.607 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 10, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.589 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 15, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.75 }, { "unanimityStage": false, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25, "heldOutAccuracy": 0.75 } ], "inSampleTerms": "OT2022–OT2023", "heldOutTerms": "OT2024–OT2024", "trainCases": 166, "cases": { "cases": 56, "correct": 35, "accuracy": 0.625, "ci95": [ 0.5, 0.75 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.661 }, "votes": { "cases": 501, "correct": 321, "accuracy": 0.641, "ci95": [ 0.599, 0.683 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.563 }, "rows": [ { "name": "Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump", "caseId": "2025-001", "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corp.", "caseId": "2025-002", "slug": "galette-v-nj-transit", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Urias-Orellana v. Bondi", "caseId": "2025-003", "slug": "urias-orellana-v-bondi", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment", "caseId": "2025-004", "slug": "cox-v-sony", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Chiles v. Salazar", "caseId": "2025-005", "slug": "chiles-v-salazar", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish", "caseId": "2025-006", "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel", "caseId": "2025-007", "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "First Choice Women's Resource Centers, Inc. v. Davenport", "caseId": "2025-008", "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Louisiana v. Callais", "caseId": "2025-009", "slug": "louisiana-v-callais", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC", "caseId": "2025-010", "slug": "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Havana Docks Corp. v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-011", "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Flowers Foods, Inc. v. Brock", "caseId": "2025-012", "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FCC v. AT&T", "caseId": "2025-013", "slug": "fcc-v-att", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. v. Amarin Pharma, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-014", "slug": "hikma-v-amarin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Sripetch v. SEC", "caseId": "2025-015", "slug": "sripetch-v-sec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-016", "slug": "fs-credit-opportunities-v-saba-capital-master", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-017", "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hunter v. United States", "caseId": "2025-018", "slug": "hunter-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "T. M. v. University of Md. Medical System Corporation", "caseId": "2025-019", "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "United States v. Hemani", "caseId": "2025-020", "slug": "us-v-hemani", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Blanche v. Lau", "caseId": "2025-021", "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cisco Systems, Inc. v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-022", "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-1", "actualVotes": "6-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación Cimex, S. A. (Cuba)", "caseId": "2025-023", "slug": "exxon-v-cimex", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Landor v. Louisiana Dept of Corrections and Public Safety", "caseId": "2025-024", "slug": "landor-v-louisiana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pung v. Isabella County", "caseId": "2025-025", "slug": "pung-v-isabella-county", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Monsanto v. Durnell", "caseId": "2025-026", "slug": "monsanto-v-durnell", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-027", "slug": "mullin-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Al Otro Lado", "caseId": "2025-028", "slug": "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Wolford v. Lopez", "caseId": "2025-029", "slug": "wolford-v-lopez", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chatrie v. United States", "caseId": "2025-030", "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Slaughter", "caseId": "2025-032", "slug": "trump-v-slaughter", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Watson v. Republican National Committee", "caseId": "2025-033", "slug": "watson-v-rnc", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "politician or candidate", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-034", "slug": "little-v-hecox", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Comm'n", "caseId": "2025-035", "slug": "nrsc-v-fec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Barbara", "caseId": "2025-036", "slug": "trump-v-barbara", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-037", "slug": "west-virginia-v-bpj", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "M & K Employee Solutions, Inc. v. Trustees of IAM Nat. Pension", "caseId": "2025-038", "slug": "m-and-k-v-iam-pension-fund", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rico v. United States", "caseId": "2025-039", "slug": "rico-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Postal Service v. Konan", "caseId": "2025-040", "slug": "postal-service-v-konan", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Berk v. Choy", "caseId": "2025-041", "slug": "berk-v-choy", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Ellingburg v. United States", "caseId": "2025-042", "slug": "ellingburg-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bowe v. United States", "caseId": "2025-043", "slug": "bowe-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Fernandez v. United States", "caseId": "2025-044", "slug": "fernandez-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Villarreal v. Texas", "caseId": "2025-045", "slug": "villarreal-v-texas", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bost v. Illinois Bd. of Elections", "caseId": "2025-046", "slug": "bost-v-illinois-bd-of-elections", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Barrett v. United States", "caseId": "2025-047", "slug": "barrett-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Case v. Montana", "caseId": "2025-048", "slug": "case-v-montana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Hain Celestial Group, Inc. v. Palmquist", "caseId": "2025-049", "slug": "hain-celestial-group-v-palmquist", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pitchford v. Cain", "caseId": "2025-050", "slug": "pitchford-v-cain", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Geo Group, Inc. v. Menocal", "caseId": "2025-051", "slug": "geo-group-v-menocal", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton", "caseId": "2025-052", "slug": "coney-island-auto-parts-unlimited-v-burton", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rutherford v. United States", "caseId": "2025-053", "slug": "rutherford-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hencely v. Fluor Corp.", "caseId": "2025-055", "slug": "hencely-v-fluor", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Olivier v. City of Brandon", "caseId": "2025-056", "slug": "olivier-v-city-of-brandon", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Abouammo v. United States", "caseId": "2025-057", "slug": "abouammo-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties", "caseId": "2025-058", "slug": "jules-v-andre-balazs-properties", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "unanimity tree", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } } ] }, "ot2025LongerWindow": { "trainTerms": "OT2020–OT2024", "chosenSpec": { "unanimityStage": true, "linkedVotes": false, "minLeaf": 25 }, "inSampleTerms": "OT2020–OT2022", "heldOutTerms": "OT2023–OT2024", "trainCases": 277, "cases": { "cases": 56, "correct": 31, "accuracy": 0.554, "ci95": [ 0.429, 0.679 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.661 }, "votes": { "cases": 501, "correct": 328, "accuracy": 0.655, "ci95": [ 0.613, 0.695 ], "baselineAccuracy": 0.563 }, "rows": [ { "name": "Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump", "caseId": "2025-001", "slug": "learning-resources-v-trump", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Galette v. New Jersey Transit Corp.", "caseId": "2025-002", "slug": "galette-v-nj-transit", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Urias-Orellana v. Bondi", "caseId": "2025-003", "slug": "urias-orellana-v-bondi", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cox Communications, Inc. v. Sony Music Entertainment", "caseId": "2025-004", "slug": "cox-v-sony", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Chiles v. Salazar", "caseId": "2025-005", "slug": "chiles-v-salazar", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chevron USA Inc. v. Plaquemines Parish", "caseId": "2025-006", "slug": "chevron-v-plaquemines", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-4", "actualVotes": "8-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Enbridge Energy, LP v. Nessel", "caseId": "2025-007", "slug": "enbridge-v-nessel", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "First Choice Women's Resource Centers, Inc. v. Davenport", "caseId": "2025-008", "slug": "first-choice-v-platkin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Louisiana v. Callais", "caseId": "2025-009", "slug": "louisiana-v-callais", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II, LLC", "caseId": "2025-010", "slug": "montgomery-v-caribe-transport", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Havana Docks Corp. v. Royal Caribbean Cruises, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-011", "slug": "havana-docks-v-royal-caribbean", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Flowers Foods, Inc. v. Brock", "caseId": "2025-012", "slug": "flowers-foods-v-brock", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "7", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "employee or union", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FCC v. AT&T", "caseId": "2025-013", "slug": "fcc-v-att", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hikma Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. v. Amarin Pharma, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-014", "slug": "hikma-v-amarin", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "Fed", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "3", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Sripetch v. SEC", "caseId": "2025-015", "slug": "sripetch-v-sec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "FS Credit Opportunities Corp. v. Saba Capital Master Fund, Ltd.", "caseId": "2025-016", "slug": "fs-credit-opportunities-v-saba-capital-master", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Keathley v. Buddy Ayers Construction, Inc.", "caseId": "2025-017", "slug": "keathley-v-buddy-ayers", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "8-1", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hunter v. United States", "caseId": "2025-018", "slug": "hunter-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "3-6", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "T. M. v. University of Md. Medical System Corporation", "caseId": "2025-019", "slug": "tm-v-univ-maryland-medical", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "4-5", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "United States v. Hemani", "caseId": "2025-020", "slug": "us-v-hemani", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "United States", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Blanche v. Lau", "caseId": "2025-021", "slug": "blanche-v-lau", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Cisco Systems, Inc. v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-022", "slug": "cisco-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-1", "actualVotes": "6-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Corporación Cimex, S. A. (Cuba)", "caseId": "2025-023", "slug": "exxon-v-cimex", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Landor v. Louisiana Dept of Corrections and Public Safety", "caseId": "2025-024", "slug": "landor-v-louisiana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pung v. Isabella County", "caseId": "2025-025", "slug": "pung-v-isabella-county", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "4", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Monsanto v. Durnell", "caseId": "2025-026", "slug": "monsanto-v-durnell", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Doe", "caseId": "2025-027", "slug": "mullin-v-doe", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Mullin v. Al Otro Lado", "caseId": "2025-028", "slug": "noem-v-al-otro-lado", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Wolford v. Lopez", "caseId": "2025-029", "slug": "wolford-v-lopez", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Chatrie v. United States", "caseId": "2025-030", "slug": "chatrie-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Slaughter", "caseId": "2025-032", "slug": "trump-v-slaughter", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "13", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Watson v. Republican National Committee", "caseId": "2025-033", "slug": "watson-v-rnc", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "politician or candidate", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-034", "slug": "little-v-hecox", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Comm'n", "caseId": "2025-035", "slug": "nrsc-v-fec", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "3", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Trump v. Barbara", "caseId": "2025-036", "slug": "trump-v-barbara", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "1st", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "West Virginia v. B. P. J.", "caseId": "2025-037", "slug": "west-virginia-v-bpj", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "state or local government", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "M & K Employee Solutions, Inc. v. Trustees of IAM Nat. Pension", "caseId": "2025-038", "slug": "m-and-k-v-iam-pension-fund", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "DC", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "other", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rico v. United States", "caseId": "2025-039", "slug": "rico-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "8-1", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Postal Service v. Konan", "caseId": "2025-040", "slug": "postal-service-v-konan", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "8", "petitionerType": "government official or agency", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Berk v. Choy", "caseId": "2025-041", "slug": "berk-v-choy", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Ellingburg v. United States", "caseId": "2025-042", "slug": "ellingburg-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "8th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bowe v. United States", "caseId": "2025-043", "slug": "bowe-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "11th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Fernandez v. United States", "caseId": "2025-044", "slug": "fernandez-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "1-8", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Villarreal v. Texas", "caseId": "2025-045", "slug": "villarreal-v-texas", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Bost v. Illinois Bd. of Elections", "caseId": "2025-046", "slug": "bost-v-illinois-bd-of-elections", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "7-2", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "7th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "politician or candidate", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Barrett v. United States", "caseId": "2025-047", "slug": "barrett-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Case v. Montana", "caseId": "2025-048", "slug": "case-v-montana", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Hain Celestial Group, Inc. v. Palmquist", "caseId": "2025-049", "slug": "hain-celestial-group-v-palmquist", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "injured person or consumer", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Pitchford v. Cain", "caseId": "2025-050", "slug": "pitchford-v-cain", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "5-4", "actualVotes": "5-4", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Geo Group, Inc. v. Menocal", "caseId": "2025-051", "slug": "geo-group-v-menocal", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "6-3", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "10th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "lcDirection": "2", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Coney Island Auto Parts Unlimited, Inc. v. Burton", "caseId": "2025-052", "slug": "coney-island-auto-parts-unlimited-v-burton", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "7-2", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "6th", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "business or employer", "respondentType": "government official or agency", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Rutherford v. United States", "caseId": "2025-053", "slug": "rutherford-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "respondent", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "3-6", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "3rd", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Hencely v. Fluor Corp.", "caseId": "2025-055", "slug": "hencely-v-fluor", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": true, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "6-3", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "4th", "issueArea": "10", "petitionerType": "injured person or consumer", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } }, { "name": "Olivier v. City of Brandon", "caseId": "2025-056", "slug": "olivier-v-city-of-brandon", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "5th", "issueArea": "2", "petitionerType": "other", "respondentType": "state or local government", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Abouammo v. United States", "caseId": "2025-057", "slug": "abouammo-v-united-states", "term": 2025, "predicted": "respondent", "actual": "petitioner", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "4-5", "actualVotes": "9-0", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "9th", "issueArea": "1", "petitionerType": "criminal defendant or prisoner", "respondentType": "United States", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 1 } }, { "name": "Jules v. Andre Balazs Properties", "caseId": "2025-058", "slug": "jules-v-andre-balazs-properties", "term": 2025, "predicted": "petitioner", "actual": "respondent", "correct": false, "predictedVotes": "9-0", "actualVotes": "0-9", "route": "Justice trees", "inputs": { "circuit": "2nd", "issueArea": "9", "petitionerType": "employee or union", "respondentType": "business or employer", "lcDirection": "1", "constitutional": 0 } } ] }, "method": "- Same six variables from the Supreme Court Database (SCDB 2025_01); state and\n district courts mapped to their circuit through SCDB's state codes. Party types\n collapsed into the groups the paper's trees name; SCDB party codes labeled from\n example case names (data/curated/scdb-party-types.json). \"Unconstitutional\n argument\" = SCDB law type constitution / amendment.\n- 24 specifications: unanimity stage (on/off) x linked votes (on/off) x six tree\n sizes; chosen on a chronological split of the training terms (last third held out).\n- Linked-vote order: the paper's order for the 2002 Court; for other Courts,\n Justices ordered from the ideological extremes inward (median Justice last),\n by prior-term Martin-Quinn scores.\n- Recent terms: OT2022-OT2025, each forecast only from earlier terms (recent_terms());\n results feed /research/replication/ruger-2004/ (scripts/build-replication-pages.js).\n- OT2025 variables coded from the slip opinions' syllabi (the paper coded from\n the merits briefs; we don't have briefs for every case).", "paperMethod": "- Training data: all 628 cases decided by the \"second Rehnquist Court\" (same nine\n Justices since OT1994) before OT2002. Test: every argued OT2002 case with a\n clean affirm/reverse outcome (68 cases; 67 for votes).\n- Six variables: circuit of origin (state courts and three-judge district courts\n count as the circuit they sit in), issue area (Spaeth), type of petitioner, type\n of respondent (Spaeth categories, several collapsed), ideological direction of\n the lower-court ruling, whether the petitioner argued a law or practice is\n unconstitutional.\n- Model: classification trees. Two trees first predict a unanimous liberal or a\n unanimous conservative decision; if neither (or both) fires, nine per-Justice\n trees predict each vote, in a fixed order, and a Justice's tree may use the\n predicted votes of Justices earlier in the order. Majority decides.\n- Model choice: 24 candidate specifications (e.g. unanimity stage or not, linked\n or independent Justice votes) fit on part of the training data and scored on\n the rest; the one best at case outcomes was refit on all training data.\n- Outcome coding: reversed, vacated or reversed in part = \"reverse\"; dismissals,\n evenly divided affirmances and unclassifiable cases excluded.\n- Reported (OT2002): 75% of outcomes after correcting a data-entry bug found after\n the term (68% as posted), 66.7% of votes; experts 59.1% / 67.9%." }